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Analysis of the varient trend plots

Inference that are interesting

  1. XBB.1.16(omicron):India sees the Spike earlier than the rest of the countries. The lowest frequency in india is higher than peaks of all other countries. xbb_1_16 xbb_1_16_ci

  2. XBB : India and Germany records the high frequencies 70.92%,50% respectively, while other countries have frequnency less than 20% xbb xbb_ci

  3. Norway doesn't have occurances of XBB.1.9.2,XBB.1.16 while other countries has recorded occurances.

  4. EG.5 is more prevalent in Norway and India for two months straight than in other countries EG_5 EG_5_CI

  5. XBB.1.9.1,EG.5 : Norway records occurances only for two months and it is highest than frequencies of other countries. No gradual increase or decrease recorded. xbb_1_9_1 xbbb_1_9_1_ci

The CI would say how true are these sudden occurances.

  1. XBB.1.9.1 : not present in Australia

  2. B.1.1.529(Omicron): The Final spike after a downhill trend during the last month of occurance(jun23) in Norway(66.66%) and Germany(16%) can be interesting. B_1_1_529 B_1_1_529_CI

  3. CH.1.1: Norway records high frequencies (61%) compared to other countries. CH_1_1 CH_1_1_CI

  4. XBB.2.3: Starts in Jan23 in India and is continuous till May23. There is a break of 3 months Jun23,Jul23,Aug23. Then there is a spike(highest frequency) in the month of Sept23-Oct23.(intereseting), while in other countries the trend is monotonous.XBB_2_3 XBB_2_3_CI

10. BA.2.86

  • Occurances only observed in Denmark, Germany,Spain,Uk,USA
  • Though the frequency of all the occuraces in all these countries are less than 10%, by the 95% CI Denmark records the highest frequncy (40%) of occurance in the month of Jul23.
  • Denmark records occurances from Jul23-Sep23, spain and UK records occurances from Sep23-Oct23. Germany,USA records occurances only in oct23 which is very low 0.9% and 0.3% respectively.

ba_2_86

  1. No records of the following variants B.1.429(Epsilon), B.1.525(Eta), B.1.526(Iota), C.37(Lambda), B.1.621(Mu), P.3(Theta), P.2(Zeta), B.1.640 in the 10 chosen countries during Jan22-Oct23.

Interesting plots of lineages not variant

All the following plots might change if the lineage mapping is done based on the characteristic mutations obtained from OutBreakInfo. Presently the mapping is based on mutations obtained from the GISAID database for each country.

  1. BF.7: Peaks of Denamrk around 30% and Germany 15% are notable because no other country has recorded such frequencies for this lineage - they are less than 5%. And Norway has no trace of this lineage. BF_7
  2. HW.1: Aaustralia has highest frequency of this lineage in the month of Sept23 - above 50%, while other countries have all their frequncies below 10%. South Koreaa and USA are the other two countries which have meager occurances of this ineage other 7 countries have no trace of this lineage. HW_1
  3. XBF: Australia and Canada records highest frequency - around 30%-35% while other countries have frequencies less than 20%. Australia records long period exposure this lineage. XBF
  4. XBK: Denmark records the highest occurance of this lineage in Jun23 - more than 30% while other countries record frequencies less than 10%. India has reported no cases from this lineage. XBK
  5. XBC.1.6: Australia records the highest frequency which is around 30% and the occurance in Australia is for a long period May23-Oct23. Minimal occurances are found in South korea, Canada, UK, USA. XBC_1_6
  6. XBC.1.3: Australia has long season (Nov22-Oct23) of this lineage and also records the highest frequency - more than 20%. XBC_1_3
  7. FL.10: Germany records the highest frequecy of 50% for a month in May23 while other countries have frequencies less than 5%. FL_10
  8. GE.1: India Records frequency of more than 30% in Jun23 while other countries have frequencies less than 10%. Uk has the prolonged season of this variant with minimal occurance.GE_1
  9. DV.x: Norway records the highest frequency of this lineage in Jun23 which is more than 30% while most countries record frequencies around 10%. Denmark has the longesst season of this lineage. Jan23-Oct23.DV_x
  10. BL.1: India records the longest season with this lineage - Jun22-Jun23 and has the hoghest frequency in Jun23 (more than 30%). It should be noted that there are no occurances in the months Jan23-May23. BL.1
  11. BQ.1.1: Spain has the longest season of this lineage with the highest frequency going upto more than 40%. BQ_1_1
  12. BR.2.1: Australia has the longest season(Jan22-Jun23) of this lineage with the highest frequency going around 40%. Feb22-Sep22 there are no occurances recorded. BR_2_1
  13. BY.1: Australia has the longest season with this lineage but with meager frequency. Canada has recorded the highest frequency in month Nov22 which is more than 30%. BY_1
  14. BR.1: Norway records highest frequency of this lineage which is more than 20% in the month of Sep22. BR_1
  15. GL.1: Australia records the highest frequency in Aug23 (more than 30%). GL_1
  16. EG.1.x: Germany has the highest frequency recorded 25% in Jul23. Frequencies in other countries are less than 5%. EG_1_x
  17. FK.1.x: Denmark records the highest frequency in May23 and South Korea has the longest season with htis lineage (May23-Oct23). FK_1_x

Summary for Variants

B.1.1.7(alpha)

  • This variants are observed only in 4 countries - Germany,Spain,UK,USA.
  • There are less than 5 datapoints in each of these countries and the frequencies are very low. The range is 0.006% - 0.3%
  • So considering not informative.

BA.2.75

  • Observed in all the ten countries
  • Except in India, in all other countries the trend starts from the mid of 2022 (jun22-Aug22) . The occurances stop around Dec22 or in the first 3 months of 2023 for all the countries.
  • In India the occurances start from Jan22 onwards. However the frequency is very low in the start of the year - less than 0.5%. By the 95% CI the values can be atmost around 1.9% in start of 2022. There are no data points observed for the months Feb22,Mar22.
  • India(56.3%),Canada(53%) has recorded the highest frequency (more than 50%) of occurance in the month of Aug22
  • Spain, Uk, Denmark has recorded constantly low frequency (less than 2.5%) in months of their existance from Aug22,jun22,jul22 respectively to Dec22.
  • For all the countries but Spain,Denmark,UK the highest peaks are observed in the months Aug22 or Sept22.

BA.2.86

  • Occurances only observed in Denmark, Germany,Spain,Uk,USA
  • Though the frequency of all the occuraces in all these countries are less than 10%. By the 95% CI Denmark records the highest frequncy (40%) of occurance in the month of Jul23.
  • Denmark records occurances from Jul23-Sep23, spain and UK records occurances from Sep23-Oct23. Germany,USA records occurances only in oct23 which is very low 0.9% and 0.3% respectively.

B.1.351(Beta)

  • Occurances recorded only in Germany and USA
  • In the Month Mar22 both the countries has data points of 0.01%(Germany) and 0.02%(USA) frequency.
  • Again in sept22 Germany has recorded a datapoint of 0.3% frequency. However by 95% CI upper limit value can go upto 6.3% in sept22

B.1.617.2(Delta)

  • The occurances are recorded starting Jan22 in all the 10 countries.
  • The trend follows a common pattern in all the countries. High in Jan22 and a drop in Feb22, followed by continuous low frequency.
  • From the trend I suspect that this variant would have it's first apprarance in the year 2021 which is out of the observation horizon.
  • I confirm my notion by realising this is the delta variant.
  • USA,UK has frequency of 60%,65% in Jan22. Spain and Germany has frequency around 80% in Jan22. Canada and South_korea has frequency around 96% in Jan22. While countries Denmark,India,Australia,Norway has frequency less than 25% in Jan22.
  • Discontinuous occurance: In south Korea and Australia there are long time periods (more than 6 months) with no occurances and then sudden occurances are noted. For example in South_korea Apr22-Oct22 there are no datapoints and from Dec22-May23 there are no occurances. In USA there are 5 continuous months of no occurance. India has 4 months of No data points. These countries have the trend extending from 2022-2023 but it has many months of no occurnaces.
  • Spain has the longest trend with no long periods of silence. From Jan22-Feb23
  • However apart from the high frequency in the month of Jan22, the frequency trend is quite monotonous with low numbers (less than 5%) in all the countries.

P.1(Gamma)

  • Occurance recorded only in Uk and only in Apr22 with a low frequency of 0.02%

B.1.1.529(Omicron)

  • Occurances start from Jan22 in all the ten countries.
  • In all the countries around the months of Feb22-Jun22 the frequency is very high (more than 97%)
  • On Average month from Aug22 onwards the trends are downstream in all the countries. There are some spikes during this downhill trend in South_korea(Nov22),Canada(Oct22),India(Dec22) . The Final spike during the last month of occurance(jun23) in Norway(66.66%) and Germany(16%) can be interesting.

B.1.617.1(Kappa)

  • Occurance recorded only in India in the months March22-May22.
  • Highest frequency is 1.1% in Apr22

EG.5

  • Occurs in all the countries.
  • In India and Norway the this variant has dominated occurance for 2 months. India - Jul23-Aug23 (100%), in Norway in the only two months of occurance Aug23-Sept23 records a frequency of 100%.
  • The time line of occurance of this variant in all the countries are similar.
  • Norway has the shortest trend Aug23-Sep23

XBB.1.16(omicron)

  • There are no occurances from Norway
  • India sees the Spike earlier than the rest of the countries. The lowest frequency in india is higher than peaks of all other countries.

XBB.1.5(omicron)

  • While in most of the countries the datapoints start around Dec22-Jan23, USA sees this variant in Aug22.
  • Peaks in the countries - India,Germany,Canada,Spain,Uk,USA are in the months Feb23-Apr23.
  • USA records the highest frequency
  • Norway has the shortest trend Mar23-May23.

XBB 1.9.1

  • Not Present in Australia
  • Norway has the shortest trend but highest frequency (Apr23-May23)
  • In countries except Norway and Canada(May23-sept23) the onset of this varient is in the beginning months of 2023 (jan,feb) .
  • In countries Denmark,Uk, Canada there is a break of continuous 2 months where there is no datapoint

XBB.1.9.2

  • Not present in Norway
  • There are discontinuous occurances but the periods of no occurance is less than or equal to 2 months.
  • The overall frequency of the occurances in all the country is less than 10%

XBB.2.3

  • Starts in jan23 in India and is continuous till May23. There is a break of 3 months Jun23,Jul23,Aug23. Then there is a spike(highest frequency) in the month of Sept23-Oct23.(intereseting)
  • Trends of other countries are mostly monotonous.

CH.1.1

  • Norway records the highest frequency(61%) while for the rest of the countries the highest recorded frequency is 32%(denmark)
  • India has the shortest trend

XBB(omicron)

  • India and Germany records the high frequencies 70.92%,50% respectively, while other countries have frequnency less than 20%

B.1.429(Epsilon), B.1.525(Eta), B.1.526(Iota), C.37(Lambda), B.1.621(Mu), P.3(Theta), P.2(Zeta), B.1.640 No data for these variants.

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